Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meneses homered to left (381 feet), García scored and Ruiz scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 8Vargas grounded into double play, third to second to first, Garrett scored, Abrams out at second.6–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7Herrera grounded into fielder's choice to first, Gurriel Jr. scored, Perdomo out at second, Fletcher to third.5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 7Meneses reached on infield single to third, Thomas scored, Ruiz to second.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Ruiz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vargas scored, García out at second, Thomas to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left (391 feet), Marte scored and Smith scored.3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Marte tripled to right, Rojas scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5García singled to right, Abrams scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Thomas grounded out to second, Garrett scored, Abrams to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Gurriel Jr. scored, Fletcher to third.1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -116
- WSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −20 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +21 Elo | ARI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.28th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.918th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 10–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.