Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Call homered to left (364 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Hoerner singled to right, Mancini scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Amaya hit sacrifice fly to left, Wisdom scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Mancini doubled to center, Bellinger scored, Wisdom to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Thomas homered to left center (408 feet), Meneses scored and Smith scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -108
- CHC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −5 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +9 Elo | WSH 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 5–1228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.