Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Caleb KilianPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-4, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner grounded out to second, Velázquez scored, Gomes to second, Wisdom to third.6–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 8Gomes reached on infield single to third, Bellinger scored, Wisdom to second, Velázquez to third.5–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Hoerner flied into sacrifice double play, left to shortstop to second, Mancini scored, Hosmer thrown out at third.4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Bellinger homered to right (411 feet).3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Sánchez singled to right, Arraez scored, Gurriel to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Hampson scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Wisdom homered to left center (418 feet), Mancini scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Chisholm Jr. hit by pitch, Segura scored, Hampson to second, Stallings to third.0–5
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Stallings singled to center, Sánchez scored, Segura to second.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Gurriel scored on Kilian wild pitch, Sánchez to third on wild pitch by Kilian.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Fair odds
- MIA -108
- CHC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −12 | CHC: Caleb Kilian (no track record yet) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +2 Elo | CHC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.