Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting2-4
- Kyle WrightPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cooper doubled to center, Berti scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 9Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Gurriel scored, Berti to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 9García singled to left, Segura scored, Gurriel to third.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 9Gurriel singled to right, Arraez scored, Segura to third.1–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Olson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pillar scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Tromp out at third.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Acuña Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rosario scored, Tromp safe at second on error by shortstop Hampson, Pillar to third.0–3
- 5Acuña Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rosario scored, Tromp safe at second on error by shortstop Hampson, Pillar to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Tromp singled to left, Grissom scored, Pillar to second, Rosario to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pillar walked, Murphy scored, Rosario to second, Grissom to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 40–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- MIA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −11 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Kyle Wright: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +21 Elo | ATL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.64th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–3 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.