Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Braves- Kevin PillarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bregman singled to left, Hensley scored and Julks scored, Dubón to second.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Julks singled to center, Tucker scored, Hensley to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Alvarez singled to right, Dubón scored and Meyers scored, Bregman to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 6Riley grounded into fielder's choice to third, Acuña Jr. to home on throwing error by second baseman Dubón, Olson out at second, Riley to second.0–2
- 6Riley grounded into fielder's choice to third, Acuña Jr. to home on throwing error by second baseman Dubón, Olson out at second, Riley to second.0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pillar homered to left (377 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +16 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 4–521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.