Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Santiago EspinalBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Astros- Corey JulksBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Espinal homered to left (377 feet).2–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Dubón hit sacrifice fly to right, Meyers scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 3Julks homered to center (424 feet).1–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 2Chapman homered to right center (387 feet).1–7
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 1Meyers homered to right (358 feet), Peña scored and Julks scored.0–7
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Julks doubled to left, J. Abreu scored and Tucker scored, Peña to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1J. Abreu doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Dubón scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +7 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +6 Elo | HOU 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 19th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.