Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-5
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras doubled to left, Grossman scored and Jung scored.9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored, Jung to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Bregman walked, Peña scored, Meyers to second, Hensley to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 46–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Semien homered to left (365 feet), Jung scored, Heim scored and Grossman scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 7Grossman singled to left, García scored, Heim to second, Jung to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Heim walked, Lowe scored, Jung to second, García to third.1–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 41–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- TEX +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +29 Elo | HOU 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–3 | Road vs home | 4–520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.