Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jihwan BaeBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bae homered to right center (403 feet), Castro scored and McCutchen scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 24–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 9McCormick doubled to left, Hensley scored and Dubón scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Smith-Njigba hit sacrifice fly to left, Hayes scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Choi homered to right (418 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Suwinski homered to right (399 feet), Castro scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Tucker homered to right (393 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Bregman homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -112
- HOU +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 5.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +17 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +15 Elo | PIT 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.919th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.