Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Rich HillPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robert Jr. singled to center, Anderson scored.9–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–13
- 9Colás homered to center (416 feet).8–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–13
- 8Joe doubled to right, Santana scored, Hayes to third.7–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–12
- 5Reynolds tripled to right, Bae scored, Reynolds scored on throwing error by second baseman Andrus, Delay scored and Cruz scored.7–12
- 5Reynolds tripled to right, Bae scored, Reynolds scored on throwing error by second baseman Andrus, Delay scored and Cruz scored.7–12
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 5Delay singled to left, Joe scored, Bae to second.7–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 5Robert Jr. homered to right (346 feet), Anderson scored.7–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 35–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 4Reynolds homered to center (414 feet), Delay scored and Cruz scored.5–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Cruz reached on infield single to shortstop, Bae scored, Delay to second.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 3Hayes doubled to center, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Burger homered to left center (419 feet), Moncada scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- CHW +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +27 Elo | PIT 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| CHW | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.9 | Runs allowed | 3.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.