San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- David VillarBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Johnson homered to right center (369 feet).12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 9Villar homered to left center (410 feet), Davis scored, Flores scored and Yastrzemski scored.11–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 8Robert Jr. homered to right center (382 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Grandal grounded out to third, Jiménez scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Vaughn doubled to right, Benintendi scored, Jiménez to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Villar homered to left (365 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5Yastrzemski homered to right (378 feet).6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Estrada homered to left (422 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Conforto homered to right center (404 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Yastrzemski doubled to right, Estrada scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -112
- SF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | SF: Anthony DeSclafani (no track record yet) · CHW: Michael Kopech (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +21 Elo | CHW 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SF | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.