Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hensley singled to right, Peña scored, J. Abreu to second.6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 9J. Abreu singled to right, Salazar scored, Peña to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 9Moncada homered to left center (362 feet), Benintendi scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Anderson doubled to center, Colás scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6McCormick scored on Santos wild pitch, Maldonado to second on wild pitch by Santos.3–1
- 6McCormick scored on Santos wild pitch, Maldonado to second on wild pitch by Santos.3–1
- 6Colás doubled to left, Vaughn scored, Grandal to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Vaughn singled to center, Moncada scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Robert Jr. homered to left (390 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -112
- CHW +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CHW: Mike Clevinger (no track record yet) · HOU: Luis Garcia (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–13rd of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
White Sox: last 3
Head to head
CHW 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.