Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Seby ZavalaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jiménez singled to right, Anderson scored, Benintendi to third.4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8J. Abreu singled to center, Julks scored, Alvarez to second.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Alvarez singled to center, Diaz scored, Julks to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Tucker singled to right, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Peña doubled to left, Hensley scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Zavala homered to left (389 feet), Colás scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Moncada homered to left (336 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1McCormick singled to right, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Tucker singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- CHW +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CHW: Lucas Giolito (no track record yet) · HOU: Jose Urquidy (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.013th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.012th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 7th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–16th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
White Sox: last 2
Astros: last 2
Head to head
CHW 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.