Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hensley singled to right, Tucker scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Alvarez doubled to center, Bregman scored, Maldonado scored and Peña scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Tucker homered to center (437 feet), J. Abreu scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Moncada hit a ground rule double, Jiménez scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Jiménez doubled to right, Benintendi scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Jiménez doubled to center, Anderson scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -110
- CHW +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CHW: Lance Lynn (no track record yet) · HOU: Cristian Javier (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 2.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 3.014th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–19th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
White Sox: last 1
Astros: last 1
Head to head
CHW 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.