MLB games
Updated
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Yasmani GrandalBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez homered to right center (442 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 9Vaughn doubled to center, Robert Jr. scored and Anderson scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 8Grandal homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 7Alvarez scored on Bummer wild pitch, Tucker to second on wild pitch by Bummer, J. Abreu to third on wild pitch by Bummer.0–1
- 7Alvarez scored on Bummer wild pitch, Tucker to second on wild pitch by Bummer, J. Abreu to third on wild pitch by Bummer.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Toss-upMiss
CHW 47%HOU 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- CHW +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | CHW: Dylan Cease (no track record yet) · HOU: Framber Valdez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
White SoxAstros
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.