Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Duvall singled to left, Verdugo scored, Yoshida to second.7–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 37–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 4Reynolds homered to right center (386 feet).7–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 4Delay homered to left (391 feet).6–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 3Suwinski singled to right, Hayes scored, Suwinski to second.5–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 2Reynolds homered to right (388 feet).4–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 1Casas homered to right (350 feet), Duvall scored.3–5
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 1Yoshida homered to left center (390 feet), Turner scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Devers homered to center (424 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Smith-Njigba doubled to left, Choi scored and Hayes scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PIT: Johan Oviedo (no track record yet) · BOS: Kutter Crawford (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 9.02nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 7.728th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 171–2 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Pirates: last 3