Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Enrique HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Verdugo singled to right, Yoshida scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 7Hernández singled to right, Duvall scored, Chang to second.5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Casas singled to right, Yoshida scored, Duvall to third.5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–7
- 7Mullins singled to center, Frazier scored and Urías scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 5Duvall singled to left, Turner scored and Yoshida scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Yoshida singled to center, Devers scored, Turner to second.3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Mullins homered to right center (380 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Frazier homered to right (396 feet), Hays scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Verdugo singled to center, Duvall scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Hernández homered to left (365 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | BAL: Cole Irvin (no track record yet) · BOS: Tanner Houck (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +18 Elo | BOS 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 309.0 | Runs scored | 9.02nd of 30 |
| 28th of 309.0 | Runs allowed | 9.028th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 6th of 151–1 | Road vs home | 1–15th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Orioles: last 2
Red Sox: last 2
Head to head
BAL 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.