MLB games
Updated
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting5-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Verdugo scored on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Refsnyder safe at second on error, Yoshida to second.10–9
- 9Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Verdugo scored on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Refsnyder safe at second on error, Yoshida to second.10–9
- 9Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Verdugo scored on fielding error by shortstop Mateo, Refsnyder safe at second on error, Yoshida to second.10–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging10–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 310–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–9
- 9Turner reached on infield single to third, Tapia scored.10–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–7
- 8Arroyo doubled to left, Duvall scored and Yoshida scored.10–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–5
- 8Casas hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Rutschman singled to left, Mullins scored, Rutschman thrown out at second.10–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 39–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 7Mullins singled to right, Frazier scored.9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Casas grounded out to first, Turner scored, Yoshida to second.8–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 6Yoshida reached on infield single to second, Devers scored, Turner to third.8–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Rutschman singled to left, Mateo scored and Mullins scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 16–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Toss-upMiss
BAL 47%BOS 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | BAL: Kyle Gibson (no track record yet) · BOS: Corey Kluber (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +18 Elo | BOS 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
OriolesRed Sox
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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