Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting5-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Adam DuvallBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Chris SalePitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duvall homered to left center (387 feet), Refsnyder scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 7Duvall hit a ground rule double, Devers scored, Turner to third.8–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 7Hernández homered to left (393 feet).8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 4Santander doubled to center, Mountcastle scored, Santander out stretching at third.8–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 3Duvall homered to left center (414 feet), Turner scored.7–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 3Verdugo homered to right center (419 feet), Hernández scored.7–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 3Mullins homered to center (418 feet), Hays scored and Mateo scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Mateo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Santander scored, Henderson out at second, Hays to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Duvall scored on Kremer wild pitch.3–1
- 2Duvall scored on Kremer wild pitch.3–1
- 1Hays homered to center (430 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Mountcastle homered to left center (422 feet), Rutschman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- BAL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | BAL: Dean Kremer (no track record yet) · BOS: Chris Sale (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +16 Elo | BOS 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3010.0 | Runs scored | 9.03rd of 30 |
| 28th of 309.0 | Runs allowed | 10.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 151–0 | Road vs home | 0–111th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Orioles: last 1
Red Sox: last 1
Head to head
BAL 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.