Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Reese McGuireBatting2-3
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Reynolds singled to center, Heineman scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Reynolds homered to center (388 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Bae homered to left (359 feet), Smith-Njigba scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Yoshida grounded out to second, Verdugo scored, Turner to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- PIT +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.0 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | PIT: Roansy Contreras (no track record yet) · BOS: Nick Pivetta (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 8.31st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 7.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.811th of 30 |
| 8th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 2–27th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.