San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson doubled to right, Conforto scored and Flores scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Sheets singled to right, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored, Moncada to third.1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Moncada singled to right, Alberto scored, Benintendi to second, Robert Jr. to third.1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Robert Jr. doubled to right, Andrus scored, Alberto to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Alberto singled to left, Colás scored, Andrus to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Davis homered to right (365 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Sheets singled to center, Benintendi scored, Vaughn thrown out at home.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Vaughn doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Benintendi to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +22 Elo | CHW 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 0–117th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.