Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Christian ArroyoBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arroyo reached on infield single to second, Casas scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Santana doubled to right, Cruz scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 33–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to left, Delay scored on error, Cruz to second, Cruz safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Yoshida.3–0
- 7Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to left, Delay scored on error, Cruz to second, Cruz safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Yoshida.3–0
- 7Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to left, Delay scored on error, Cruz to second, Cruz safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Yoshida.3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Hayes reached on bunt single to first, Reynolds scored, McCutchen to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Santana homered to right (340 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- PIT +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.8 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +1 Elo | PIT 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 6.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 6.828th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 6th of 173–2 | Road vs home | 2–39th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–0 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.