San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting3-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andrus doubled to left, Alberto scored and Benintendi scored.16–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–6
- 9Benintendi doubled to right, Sheets scored, Alberto to third.16–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 116–4
- 9Davis homered to left (408 feet), Beaty scored, Villar scored and Conforto scored.16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play16–3
- 8Estrada doubled to left, Conforto scored, Yastrzemski to third.12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–3
- 8Davis singled to right, Villar scored, Conforto to second.11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 6Flores homered to left (392 feet), Wade Jr. scored.10–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Yastrzemski homered to right (413 feet), Davis scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Vaughn singled to right, Zavala scored, González to third.6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pederson singled to center, Estrada scored and Sabol scored, Wade Jr. to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Anderson reached on infield single to shortstop, Andrus scored and Zavala scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -111
- SF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | SF: Alex Wood (no track record yet) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +20 Elo | CHW 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.021st of 30 |
| 15th of 182–3 | Road vs home | 1–17th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.