Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-5, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCutchen homered to right (350 feet).11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 7Robert Jr. singled to center, Andrus scored and Anderson scored.11–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 7Anderson singled to right, Colás scored, Andrus to third.9–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7Colás singled to right, Vaughn scored, Grandal to third.7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 5Santana singled to center, Reynolds scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to right, Cruz scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Andrus hit sacrifice fly to right, Vaughn scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to center, Cruz scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Benintendi scored on Velasquez wild pitch, Sheets to second on wild pitch by Velasquez, Vaughn to third on wild pitch by Velasquez.5–1
- 3Benintendi scored on Velasquez wild pitch, Sheets to second on wild pitch by Velasquez, Vaughn to third on wild pitch by Velasquez.5–1
- 3Benintendi singled to left, Anderson scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Colás singled to left, Vaughn scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Santana singled to right, McCutchen scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.8 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.19th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.910th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.