Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Twins- Kyle FarmerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña homered to left (363 feet), J. Abreu scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Buxton homered to left (419 feet), Farmer scored and Vázquez scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 8Vázquez singled to left, Gordon scored, Farmer to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Vázquez singled to left, Farmer scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 3Alvarez homered to right (384 feet), Maldonado scored, McCormick scored and Bregman scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Larnach singled to center, Vázquez scored, Correa thrown out at home.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Farmer homered to left center (397 feet), Gordon scored and Solano scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 1.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.