Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Maldonado grounded into fielder's choice to third, Julks scored, Dubón out at second.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Vierling doubled to left, Kreidler scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Torkelson homered to center (424 feet), Greene scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Haase grounded out to shortstop, Greene scored, Torkelson to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Rogers singled to center, Schoop scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Tucker homered to right center (397 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Tucker singled to left, Bregman scored, J. Abreu to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Torkelson doubled to shortstop, Báez scored, Torkelson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | +11 | DET: Matt Manning (no track record yet) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.5 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 27th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−4.3 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 2–38th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.