Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Franco doubled to right, Arozarena scored and Mejía scored.2–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–12
- 6Meadows singled to center, Carpenter scored.2–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 4Díaz homered to left (388 feet), Walls scored.1–10
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–10
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Cabrera singled to right, Carpenter scored.1–8
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 3Franco singled to right, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.0–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 3Díaz hit a ground rule double, Mejía scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Mejía singled to center, J. Lowe scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3J. Lowe doubled to right, Siri scored and Walls scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Siri doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Franco scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -112
- DET +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | DET: Spencer Turnbull (no track record yet) · TB: Zach Eflin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 300.0 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 0.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +4.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 150–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Tigers: last 1
Rays: last 1
Head to head
DET 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.