MLB games
Updated
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Austin MeadowsBatting3-4
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Franco homered to left center (402 feet).0–4
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Raley singled to right, Paredes scored, Arozarena to third.0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 6Arozarena singled to center, Walls scored, Paredes to second.0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Siri homered to left (393 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Toss-upHit
DET 47%TB 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez (no track record yet) · TB: Shane McClanahan (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
TigersRays
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
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