Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Diaz scored, Bregman out at second.7–6
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 11Vierling homered to center (426 feet), Torkelson scored.7–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9J. Abreu doubled to left, Bregman scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 7Greene homered to left center (414 feet).5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Alvarez homered to right center (435 feet), Peña scored and Bregman scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Peña grounded into fielder's choice to third, Dubón scored, Maldonado out at second.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Torkelson walked, Greene scored, Carpenter to second, Báez to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 44–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Báez singled to right, Maton scored, Báez to second, Greene to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- DET +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | DET: Matthew Boyd (no track record yet) · HOU: Hunter Brown (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +26 Elo | HOU 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 301.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 307.0 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 170–3 | Road vs home | 2–26th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.