Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rogers homered to left center (393 feet).1–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 8B. Lowe scored on Shreve wild pitch, J. Lowe to third on wild pitch by Shreve.0–5
- 8B. Lowe scored on Shreve wild pitch, J. Lowe to third on wild pitch by Shreve.0–5
- 6Siri singled to left, Arozarena scored and Raley scored, B. Lowe to third.0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Paredes singled to left, Franco scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Arozarena homered to left center (436 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | DET: Joey Wentz (no track record yet) · TB: Jeffrey Springs (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 301.0 | Runs scored | 8.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 308.0 | Runs allowed | 1.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +7.02nd of 30 |
| 14th of 150–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Tigers: last 2
Rays: last 2
Head to head
DET 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.