Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 10Farmer singled to center, Larnach scored, Solano to second, Miranda to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 10Miranda singled to right, Buxton scored, Larnach to second.2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 10Dubón singled to left, Hensley scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Solano scored on B. Abreu wild pitch, Gordon to second on wild pitch by B. Abreu.1–1
- 6Solano scored on B. Abreu wild pitch, Gordon to second on wild pitch by B. Abreu.1–1
- 3Bregman singled to right, Dubón scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +17 | HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 1.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.25th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.