Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña homered to left center (360 feet), Julks scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Meadows singled to left, Greene scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Tucker doubled to right, Bregman scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Julks hit sacrifice fly to left, Hensley scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Tucker homered to right (338 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Maton reached on infield single to third, McKinstry scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2McCormick homered to left center (368 feet), Hensley scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -110
- DET +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +10 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 25th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.817th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 14th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 2–410th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.