Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Jiman ChoiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bregman singled to center, McCormick scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 4Castro singled to right, Santana scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Tucker reached on infield single to second, Bregman scored and Alvarez scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 3Maldonado singled to left, Julks scored, Maldonado to second, Dubón to third.5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Choi homered to center (407 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Alvarez singled to left, Dubón scored and Maldonado scored, Bregman to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Dubón singled to right, Peña scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Tucker singled to left, Bregman scored, Alvarez out at third on runner's fielder's choice.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +14 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +27 Elo | PIT 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.716th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.614th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–14th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.