Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting3-4
- Michael KopechPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Johan OviedoPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Suwinski hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith-Njigba scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 5.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −1 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +42 Elo | PIT 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.3 | Runs allowed | 5.119th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.6 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 14th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.