Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña doubled to left, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5McCormick singled to center, Peña scored and Dubón scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Solano doubled to right, Buxton scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3McCormick homered to right (354 feet), Dubón scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- HOU +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +12 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +46 Elo | MIN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 2.42nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.14th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.