Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Martin MaldonadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung reached on infield single to shortstop, Semien scored, García to third.6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Maldonado homered to left center (410 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Lowe singled to left, Taveras scored and Semien scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Alvarez homered to left (354 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3García homered to left center (399 feet), Lowe scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Lowe doubled to right, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −12 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +9 Elo | HOU 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.19th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.