Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Edwin RiosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Seager doubled to left, Semien scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Semien singled to center, Thompson scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Thompson tripled to center, Heim scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Thompson doubled to left, Jankowski scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Ríos homered to center (417 feet), Bellinger scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Semien doubled to right, Jankowski scored and Thompson scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Thompson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Heim scored on throwing error by third baseman Madrigal, Thompson second, Jankowski safe at third on error.2–0
- 2Thompson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Heim scored on throwing error by third baseman Madrigal, Thompson second, Jankowski safe at third on error.3–0
- 2Thompson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Heim scored on throwing error by third baseman Madrigal, Thompson second, Jankowski safe at third on error.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Jankowski hit a ground rule double, J. Smith scored, Heim to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +3 Elo | CHC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.74th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.