Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lowe homered to center (420 feet).7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Mateo homered to left center (392 feet), Hays scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2García homered to center (421 feet).5–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Mountcastle homered to right (348 feet), McKenna scored and Mullins scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Mullins doubled to right, Mateo scored, McKenna to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2McKenna singled to left, Frazier scored, Mateo to second, Mateo safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Duran.1–0
- 2McKenna singled to left, Frazier scored, Mateo to second, Mateo safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Duran.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Fair odds
- TEX -113
- BAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | — | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +29 Elo | TEX 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 7.32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 3.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +4.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.