Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-3
- Jon GrayPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mateo homered to left center (433 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Henderson homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Fair odds
- TEX -113
- BAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 5.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | BAL: Kyle Bradish (no track record yet) · TEX: Jon Gray (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 307.7 | Runs scored | 9.71st of 30 |
| 29th of 309.0 | Runs allowed | 3.712th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.3 | Margin | +6.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 171–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Orioles: last 3