Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-2
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Happ doubled to center, Barnhart scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Bellinger singled to right, Swanson scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +20 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +24 Elo | CHC 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| TEX | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 5.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.816th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.