Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lowe doubled to left, Duran scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Jung homered to right center (378 feet), García scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Frazier singled to left, Vavra scored, Hays to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Hays grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mountcastle scored, Vavra safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Semien.1–2
- 5Hays grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mountcastle scored, Vavra safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Semien.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Jung singled to left, García scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1García doubled to right, Seager scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- BAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez (no track record yet) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 6.25th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +2.27th of 30 |
| 7th of 173–2 | Road vs home | 3–25th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 2–0 TEX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.