Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to left, Semien scored.3–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored, Madrigal scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by center fielder García.2–10
- 8Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored, Madrigal scored and Swanson scored on throwing error by center fielder García.2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Gomes homered to left (370 feet).2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Mancini singled to right, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Lowe singled to center, J. Smith scored, Seager to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Hosmer singled to center, Mancini scored and Wisdom scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Wisdom homered to left center (396 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Swanson singled to right, Madrigal scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Jung singled to right, Seager scored, García to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Happ grounded out to first, Swanson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +9 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +11 Elo | CHC 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.013th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.