Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Heim homered to right (403 feet), García scored and Jung scored.5–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 10García singled to center, Semien scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 10Massey hit sacrifice fly to center, Bradley Jr. scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 9Melendez singled to right, Isbel scored, Lopez to second.4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Melendez to second.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Semien doubled to left, Miller scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Reyes singled to right, Pasquantino scored, Reyes out stretching at second.2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3García hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Lowe doubled to right, Semien scored, Seager to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Witt Jr. singled to right, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Miller singled to center, Jung scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Fair odds
- TEX -116
- KC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +37 Elo | TEX 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.6 | Runs scored | 5.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +2.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 TEX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.