Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Blake SabolBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perez homered to left center (416 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (366 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Sabol singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Lopez singled to right, Isbel scored, Dozier to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -115
- KC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +38 Elo | SF 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| KC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.4 | Runs scored | 6.32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.322nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.