Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4
- Zack GreinkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman singled to left, Varsho scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (389 feet).2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Chapman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho out at second.1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Fair odds
- KC -112
- TOR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +14 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +36 Elo | KC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 2.829th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 1–416th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.