Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bichette homered to left center (397 feet).5–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Chapman scored on Coleman wild pitch, Biggio to second on wild pitch by Coleman.4–9
- 8Chapman scored on Coleman wild pitch, Biggio to second on wild pitch by Coleman.4–9
- 7Guerrero Jr. walked, Kiermaier scored, Bichette to second, Springer to third.3–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 43–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Springer singled to center, Biggio scored, Kiermaier to second.2–9
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 31–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 6Melendez homered to right center (443 feet), Lopez scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 5Kiermaier grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Belt scored, Biggio out at second, Chapman to third.1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Witt Jr. singled to center, Pasquantino scored, Witt Jr. thrown out at third.0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 4Pasquantino doubled to right, Lopez scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Lopez tripled to center, Dozier scored and Bradley Jr. scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -110
- TOR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TOR: Jose Berrios (no track record yet) · KC: Brady Singer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +16 Elo | KC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 1.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 307.3 | Runs allowed | 3.712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.3 | Margin | −2.323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 171–2 | Road vs home | 0–316th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.