Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Royals- Franmil ReyesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jansen hit into fielder's choice to right, Chapman scored, Varsho out at second.4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Varsho homered to left (373 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Merrifield scored on Bubic wild pitch.2–1
- 4Merrifield scored on Bubic wild pitch.2–1
- 3Chapman singled to left, Bichette scored, Chapman to second, Guerrero Jr. thrown out at third.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Reyes homered to left center (455 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Fair odds
- KC -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi (no track record yet) · KC: Kris Bubic (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +20 Elo | KC 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.324th of 30 |
| 29th of 307.8 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 1–313th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.