Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olivares doubled to left, Perez scored, Pasquantino to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pasquantino singled to right, Melendez scored, Perez to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left (355 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Varsho singled to left, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to center (436 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Biggio homered to right (400 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Bichette singled to right, Kiermaier scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Chapman doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Varsho scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +15 Elo | KC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 2.329th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.522nd of 30 |
| 9th of 183–3 | Road vs home | 1–516th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.