Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Eaton scored on Doval wild pitch.6–5
- 9Eaton scored on Doval wild pitch.6–5
- 8Perez homered to left center (375 feet), Olivares scored and Melendez scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Reyes homered to left center (388 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Crawford singled to right, Estrada scored, Crawford out stretching at second.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Witt Jr. homered to left center (384 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Crawford singled to center, Estrada scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Estrada singled to left, Davis scored, Estrada to second.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Pederson hit sacrifice fly to left, Conforto scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Wade Jr. homered to right (394 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SF: Sean Manaea (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +23 Elo | SF 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.5 | Runs scored | 5.66th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.612th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.