Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Hunter DozierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Dozier homered to left center (408 feet).2–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 6García homered to left center (419 feet), Jankowski scored, Seager scored and Lowe scored.1–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 6Jankowski singled to center, Heim scored and Thompson scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Thompson doubled to right, Grossman scored, Heim to third.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Heim homered to right center (413 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Lowe doubled to center, Semien scored, Seager thrown out at home.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Seager reached on infield single to pitcher, Jankowski scored, Semien to second.1–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- KC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −5 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.7 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–26th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.