Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-3
- Kris BubicPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto homered to right center (429 feet), Flores scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Flores doubled to left, Johnson scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Perez singled to left, Pasquantino scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -113
- KC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +29 Elo | SF 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.55th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 2–0 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.